I've now gone back to where I was most comfortable, that is trading outsiders.
Randomly trading faves, 2nd faves etc worked 9 out of 10 times and then bang one would just go steaming to a big red with me just staring at the screen wiping out all my previous hard work.
I have applied disciplined to my trading and I am recording all results, in 210 events over the last 4 days I have gone 'bad in play' 17 times or 8.02%. For me that is a massive improvement.
I've also changed my Geeks Toy set up asnd removed the graphs, I found that they were not really helping me and since dropping them and keeping an eye on ATR and the odds has been much better in terms of trading the right horses at the right odds.
I feel I can now post on here without feeling a fraud as I am now actually trading and not trading with a bit of gambling to get me out of a hole.
I've seen the light and bank management is now key, I don't trade races that I feel don't meet my trading style and I therefore get myself in trouble less and therefore in play less. When in play I get out as soon as I possibly can, given I am trading 33/1 upwards I tend to have a bit more time to get out. The short distance flat races are never in play
I hope I can keep it up.
Daniel Kahneman RIP
3 weeks ago
This sounds like a good idea. When I was struggling I hated races with odds under 3.0, just found them too confusing, so I stopped trading them and concentrated on what I felt I could trade successfully. Trading the favorites was also difficult a lot of the time. Now with more experience and a bit more knowledge about how the markets work, I am more able to deal with the races I found hard. Im sure it will be the same with you.
ReplyDeleteI just know exactly where I am with the outsiders and feel confident my trades will result in a profit, on the faves to be honest it can go either way very fast and when you play with bigger stakes it can horribly red very quickly. Generally as a layer first I am extremely cautiouson the AW tracks and bumper NH races, eliminating mistakes on those races has had a big impact on the number of large reds.
ReplyDeleteIt's looking good at the moment and I much more confident.
I've also started to trade in play (after closing out pre race traded positions). Despite the delay in ATR I still find value and it is amazing what people will back at lowish odds when a horse is clearly well beaten. I am ultra cautious on this though.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI see you have a link to The Geeks Toy. Have you tried the Betfair Betting Assistant from Gruss Software?
They are currently running a free trial and would appreciate a link on the blog if you give it a go.
http://www.gruss-software.co.uk/